One of the bigger issues that I have wrestled with is how
does Krugman explain the economic crisis of the ‘70s and the subsequent
recovery in the Reagan ‘80s. Looking at
this scenario it would seem to support a right-wing / austerity approach to
solving economic doldrums, which is exactly the opposite of what Krugman
proposes. Krugman now has a post on
this. He writes that the ‘70s crisis was
very different than the current one – no large debt, it was really an inflation
crisis whereby businesses increased prices and workers demanded higher wage
rates. Honestly this doesn’t make much
sense to me and this post seems to lack the technical rigor that I am used to
from Krugman. He implies that the ‘70s
crisis could have ended with a reconciliation between workers, business, and
the government (seriously Krugman? I’ve never heard of this type of thing before)
but instead it was decided that interest rates needed to be raised to kill
inflation. Also he mentions that there was still a national funk into the late
80s and this didn’t really start to improve until the mid 90’s. This seems bizarre, didn’t Reagan get
re-elected in a landslide in ’84 and Bush get elected in ’88? So basically I can say I learned something
from his explanation of the cause of the 70s crisis – but he has done nothing
to persuade that high interest rates in the early 80’s didn’t solve the 70s
crisis.
Krugman makes clear in another post that there is a parallel
between the run-up to war in Iraq and the fetish to impose austerity on the economy. He doesn’t believe deep down that these
supporters necessarily want to kill people (war in Iraq) or throw people out of
work (austerity) – he thinks that it is because these believers want to look
tough. Tough like Churchill in the 30s
and tough like Volker in the late 70s.
This is totally misguided he argues and misses the point – on the
economic front this recession is just a technical malfunction that could be
corrected with the right policies – but government keeps making things worse
with austerity.
He has fun with “deficit scolds” who have made a career of
admonishing the public about the deficit and that something must be done
now. Krugman points out that now the deficit
is receding and it has nothing to do with the solutions these deficit scolds
have prescribed.
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