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May 15, 2013

What has Krugman blogged about recently?

We find out that he:

a)      loves libraries, Civil War history, singer/songwriter types, and science fiction with a tinge of econ

b)      is gleeful that a right-wing think tank is associated with a white supremacist and goes on to explain the think-tank is not really serious – it just puts out bull$%#

c)       Because the European central bank has promised to support governments with unlimited money bad times in Europe have not gotten worse. It was not because of austerity.

d)      Things are getting better in Japan because of basically his idea that the government has promised to print a lot more money

e)      Defending Ben Bernanke against very mad hedge fund traders.  They are mad at Ben since bond prices are very strong and they believe they should fall but Krugman says hey you hedge funders, you should have realized they we are in a one in a million crisis so things won’t work out as you always expected.

f)       He’s very proud of himself for thinking that the liquidity trap phenomenon has been relevant for this crisis, matter of fact when some referred to liquid trap as ‘textbook’ he was like – what textbook is that --- I (Krug) wrote the only textbook that mentioned it before this whole crisis.

g)      Pegged a 8k+ word essay/book review at the New York Review of Book on his whole approach to the crisis with some economic history thrown in.  Hmmm, maybe this is why he had no column on Monday.   Relatively short synopsis:

a.       2 academic papers were written that provided proponents of austerity (austerians) the intellectual cover to cut government spending

b.      These papers were proved wrong

c.       Why did important people believe these papers?

d.      Answer is in the history of the crisis

e.      2008 was start of the crisis due to bursting of the housing bubble

f.        Bubble burst because sub-prime mortgage market collapsed

g.       This caused a crisis since now people needed to pay down their debts at the same time – which meant no one was spending

h.      Lessons learned for the ‘30’s meant no depression because of more social welfare programs which automatically pumped money into the economy

i.         Stimulus in 2008 and 2009 also helped but there were too small and too short compared to size of the economy

j.        In 2010 governments suddenly pivoted from stimulus to austerity

k.       They did this since the crisis seemed somewhat over the worst, German government and Republicans never believed in government spending, and there were the aforementioned academic papers which warned of high government debt.

l.         Also the Greek crisis happened which seemed to highlight to the austerians the dangers of high government spending

m.    Austerians claimed that by cutting government spending people would have renewed confidence and growth would return.  These beliefs held sway over policy makers.

n.      Since 2010 there has been emphasis on austerity but no recovery.

o.      Why then did people listen to austerity policies and not classical economics?

p.      Classical economics says that crisis’ are not because bad people (we are spending too much before so there must be pain now) but because of a technical malfunction in the economy.

q.      Wealthy people have not been hurt as much from the non-recovery that has kept interest rates low and no inflation – they are the creditors or people who give out loans since they are more likely to get paid in full and not have the value of the loans reduced through inflation.

r.        This has been terrible since many, many people have needlessly suffered and we had the tools to fight the crisis and have a quicker recovery.  We just choose not to use them.

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